A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
